What drives low market-based inflation measures?
in VBA Journaal door Dirk Broeders, Gavin Goy, Annelie Petersen and Nander de VetteCentral banks and investors critically monitor market-based inflation measures as key indicators for medium-term inflation expectations. Market-based measures of inflation expectations have experienced a sharp decline over 2019. The euro 5y5y inflation-linked swap rate has fallen from 1.8 percent at the beginning of 2019 to a level of around 1.2 percent at year’s end.