Monetary Policy Transmission – Theory & Practice
in VBA Journaal door Anke CornelisseSince the beginning of 2023, investors have been timing the first rate cut of central banks. Central banks’ mantra is “we are data-dependent”. This implies that their next policy steps depend fully on the information incoming data will provide. Inflation numbers have come down substantially, but with strong wage pressure and healthy profit margins, the last miles back to target could prove difficult. At which point is policy restrictive enough? When is the transmission mechanism of monetary policy properly working and how long does it take to observe the intended effect on inflation? Is central bank policy already too tight for too long, and should one lift their hedging ratios before it is too late? Or will the last miles of inflation prove to be more sticky and should we wait with overweighting interest rate sensitive assets? This essay covers the theoretics of monetary policy transmission and studies the current transmission of ECB’s policy in the European economy.
